Adds NEO Twitter post
Mother Nature will just not cooperate.
Nicole McGavock of the National Weather Service office in Tulsa said a shot of rain across southeast Kansas Monday morning resulted in a change in the crest forecast for the Neosho River during the daily 4 p.m. Storm Adaptive Management Plan conference call.
She said the level is bottoming out at the Stepps Ford Bridge at Commerce, and then rise again to 24.6 feet by Wednesday morning. It’s forecast to fall again — but there is a chance for additional rainfall on Tuesday and Wednesday — which would necessitate yet another adjustment.
McGavock said the situation for Tuesday is uncertain because of where the latest wave of storms will hit.
They are expected to develop near I-35 in north central Oklahoma and south central Kansas, spreading to the northeast into the Tulsa area and southeast Kansas between 4 and 9 p.m.
“One of the models takes it on to Ottawa County, southeast Kansas and southeast Missouri,” she said.
McGavock said another model takes the storm system to the southeast, where the heaviest rainfall would be in northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas late evening to around midnight.
“Wherever the heaviest storms are, that is where we could see 1- to 2-inches of rainfall,” she said.
If the heavier rainfall is in the Neosho basin, she said that would cause a higher rise at Commerce.
The other model would have the rain right on top of Ottawa County and Grand Lake, so there would not be as much water coming down from Kansas.
Spring River has fallen below flood stage and the flood warning has been cancelled, but additional rainfall would bring the level back up to the 20-foot flood stage.
Wednesday, she said there is the potential for widespread heavy rainfall of an additional 2 to 4 inches from I-44 to the southeast.
The current Neosho level is 24.6 feet, but the potential is for the level to rise another 1½ feet if there is 1 to 2 inches to the north.
That still is well off the crest level of 2007, 29.25 feet.
John Redmond Reservoir in Burlington, Kansas, was at 1068.45 as of 1 p.m. and Pensacola was 754.4 at 3 p.m.
It was noted that the flood control pool use at Pensacola Dam was 94.46 percent, down from 98.75 percent from 24 hours ago.
Bill Chatron of the Army Corps of Engineers directed gate changes at Pensacola and Hudson.
At 3:30 p.m., Pensacola went from 119,000 cubic feet per second to 110,000 cfs.
Hudson, with an elevation of 633.97 feet, went from 138,000 to approximately 125,000, Chatron said.
Fort Gibson was cut to 150,000 cfs. Its elevation was 581.44.
In a Twitter post from Northeastern A&M Sunday evening: “Due to restricted travel around campus, NEO will restrict operating hours to 9 a.m. until 4 p.m. until further notice. Thank you for your cooperation while we dry out!”